EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DYNAMICS OF NIGER DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA USING LAND CHANGE MODELER

Aniekan Eyoh, Francis Okeke

Abstract


The Niger delta region of Nigeria has undergone severe Eco-environmental changes. This alteration has caused unquantifiable eco-environmental changes to natural land cover, hence, the need for an assessment of the past, present and future Land use/land cover dynamics of the region. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1986, 2002 & 2016 and IDRISI based Land Change Modeler were used for this study. Spatio-temporal analysis of LULC change between 1986 and 2016 showed that all the Land use/land cover classes were considerably altered from their initial state. The forest recorded a depletion of 29.09% of its extent. Mangrove and vegetation also had losses of 1.85% and 2.17% respectively. But high and low density built up recorded gains up to 20% through conversions of forested and arable vegetated lands to settlements. The projected result indicated almost similar trend of LULC changes as witness from 1986-2016. It showed that high and low density built will further increase by 17.7% while the forest, mangrove and vegetation will have further losses of 2.09%, 11.89% and 4.71% respectively. The result had an overall accuracy of 80.75% & Kappa statistic of 0.76. This future insight calls for proactive measures from Eco-environmental planners if the trend is to be abated.

Keywords


Land use/Land cover change, Land Change Modeler, Niger Delta Region

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